Sunday, October 19, 2008

week 7 picks

Sometimes teams, and players alike are given labels that tend to stick like Velcro to a player. Reputation is built upon some action that caused the player to be construed as either good or evil. When I say evil, I don’t mean it in the storybook sense, but the reality is that we like to draw black and white lines across the sand and divide our sports stars and teams without a gray area.

So what to make of guys like Adam Pacman Jones, or Terrell Owens, teammates in both employer and compulsion to cause distraction. While T.O.’s rap sheet isn’t as extensive, his reputation as a malcontent when things aren’t going as he likes makes him a lamp to the journalist moths that strike when he lights up. No one is beyond reproach for T.O.. Just like Mr. Jones who can’t seem to avoid the flashing lights of local authorities who seem to know him on a nickname basis across the country.

But what is their direct effect on their team is the question? Are they a distraction, something holding a team back from reaching the ultimate prize, or are they the misunderstood talents that Jerry Jones sees. Parallels between George Steinbrenner and Jerry Jones is easily understood if you take into fact that the major unifying trait between the two is the greed and ego that drive them to take what industry insiders would classify as calculated risks. Taking in reclamation projects like Adam Jones and T.O. for Jerry Jones and Doc Gooden and Darryl Strawberry for George Steinbrenner can be likened to a 9 year old being hired as a GM and basing all personnel decisions based on the fact that this guy was the best player in the league once.

But what most don’t see in these lost souls, owners see more for their drawing power and filling up stadiums than for any good they can do for them humanity wise. This is not the Betty Ford clinic, but a place that serves the needs of both. While putting the player back in the spotlight of the premiere franchise of their respected leagues, the owner has the ability to pad his ego by trotting out that player, fresh out of whatever prison they were in and now clean because the owner had done wonders to that person’s life. Oh and the financial windfall that comes from having that player, because like anything it’s all about the bottom line.

So now, with his apparent lack of will to heed better judgement, Pac Man (sorry you’re lease on that name has been brought back thanks to this new low) now faces the possibility of seeing more time out of the NFL. He’s suspended indefinitely and if most journalists across the country had a vote, he’d be rid from the NFL forever. Were it to happen to most, it would fall under the radar but thanks to a less than stellar rep, Mr. Jones has found himself in an unfortunate situation that he could have controlled but now, no longer has any input in. He now is at the mercy of Commissioner Goodell and for that he has no one but himself to blame. Should we feel a twinge of guilt for those of us who can’t control their natural inhibitions? Should we shed a tear for Amy Winehouse. Successful singer, yet troubled drug addict. People like these don’t give us any reason to feel sorry for them. They now get something more unfortunate than our anger, they get our pity.

On that wonderfully positive note we move to the weekly rankings system that I usually serve as a prelude to the weekly picks but this week I wanted to go a bit deeper into my thoughts on the top 10 teams in the league. As usual, last week’s rankings are in ().

10. (13) Indianapolis Colts- I can’t help but think back to two weeks ago when everyone pretty much wrote this team off. Coming into the bye week, the Colts had not won a home game and seemingly were getting older and Peyton, it was told, had not recovered from a second surgery (tada!). So they were left for dead by national media types when they welcomed the fierce Baltimore Ravens team into their brand new oil money paid stadium. The exact game that traps everyone. Predictably, the Colts absolutely punished the offensively challenged Ravens. So of course, why did I put them back in the top 10? They should be 1-5, yes. But you can’t keep good teams down, and the Colts seem to have some good players coming back, although the loss of Joseph Addai is a killer. They don’t have an especially easy schedule, but as we all see, any team can compete with any other.

9. (16) Tampa Bay Buccaneers- I can’t recall a team more boring and less fun to watch and root for than the Tampa Bay Bucs. Perhaps it’s the fact that their defense, is so good but has no player receiving star like attention or the fact that they play in the ultra competitive or everybody’s the same level, depending on how you look at things. Viewpoints aside, the Bucs are a team that can not be taken lightly in a division where literally anyone can win. In terms of competition within a league, they are as tight as the NFC East where any team can beat any other within the division. But unlike the NFC East, these teams are not considered the elite in the NFC and all of football.

8. (9) Pittsburgh Steelers- Sure they won a game that they should’ve lost on Monday night last we saw them, but their first and second string running backs are down and their offensive line is a mess and the Steelers game is the power running game which makes them vulnerable in the one key position that they can’t afford to. Which is why I can’t move them any higher. I like the Steelers grit and I love Big Ben, but they need more than grit to survive this conference and a wide open NFC North, which in my mind, despite their lead is not done by a long shot.

7. (7) Philadelphia Eagles- I just don’t know what to make of this team. One week they are keeping up with the Cowboys and putting 40 on a team like the 49ers, without Brian Westbrook, other weeks they can’t punch it in the end zone having first goal with Brian Westbrook. Its improbable and despite the past weekend of football exhibited by the NFL, I don’t think anyone’s fooled by the results. Common sense prevails here. The Iggles are just not as good as people want to make them out to be in the beginning of the season. The next few weeks after the bye is not that hard of a schedule, but they still have that slate of NFC East games including two against the Giants, and one more against the Cowboys and the Redskins, and those are all toss ups. I like the make up of this team but I’m not convinced until I see their offense in full strength. They should be better.

6. (5) Washington Redskins- Listen, I’m not going to make excuses for this team’s performance this past weekend. They faced a team that was primed and ready for them especially considering that the Rams had just changed their head coaches. Plus add to the fact that the Skins obviously looked past them which is understandable. But when you play a team like that, all you have to do is beat them into submission for two quarters. Get a two touchdown advantage and then in the third score one more time even if they answer your TD to open the second half, so you can take the wind out of their sails.

5. (6) Buffalo Bills- If there is one team to lean upon as representative of how confusing this season has been, this would be it. Sure, they have a good enough offense with enough weapons and their defense is much improved, but they don’t do anything spectacularly that makes you notice them. But they get wins. Teams that play with grit and heart can overcome shortcomings on certain sides of the ball. I like this Bills team and honestly will be rooting for them. I just don’t see them getting far without one more defensive upgrade.

4. (3) Dallas Cowboys- I would’ve put them fifth, but they went and plucked Roy Williams. Oh that’s right its Roy E. Williams. I think teams should have a rule that the player that is clearly better between the two gets to have his jersey however he likes. At this point, Roy Williams the safety has been the clear weak link on that team whereas Roy E Williams is an up and coming receiver who clearly is a huge upgrade over Patrick Crayton. There are two big question marks however. One is, how will T.O. react to what will inevitably lead to less touches because Brad Johnson is one of those professional types who does not care who gets the ball as long as the chains keep moving, unlike Romo who feels that since T.O. cried defending him he is OBLIGATED to give them the ball. Secondly, with another added weapon to the passing game is this another direction to getting away from the run which SHOULD BE their main point of attack? Marion Barber is a beast. A possession running back who can bust big gains and sets up the running attack, which clearly they need to improve upon and got away from last week in their loss to the Cardinals. But I think every Cowboy fan realizes what their biggest weak link is: Wade Phillips. Why? I think this quote summarizes why he’s the wrong man for the job. When he was asked about Romo’s injury this is what he said and I swear by this: “ he injured the ::looked at his hand and stuck his right index finger at the pinky:: (still thinking at this point and saying uhhhhhhhhhh) fifth finger of the hand and will be out a few days.” If he’s not qualified to give a simple medical report about an injury to the pinky, the guy is not qualified to take a Super Bowl talented team to the promised land. Its amazing the parallels between Wade Phillips taking over a Super Bowl ready team that was built by Bill Parcells to the super Bowl team that Barry Switzer took over after Jimmy Johnson left. I wonder if they still have the White House over in Dallas.

3. (4) San Diego Chargers- What worries me about this team isn’t their defense giving up points and all that, its that it is almost exactly like the 2007 Super Bowl champion Giants in many ways. One of their biggest stars is not on their roster because of an injury. They have a maligned super star that is aging as we speak. They dropped their first two in heart breaking fashion. They are traveling to England. Why am I worried? Because they look like the talent laden team that is ready to sneak up on everyone this January. The AFC is not as tough as years past thanks to Tom Brady’s ACL and Peyton Manning’s knee, but its getting better as each week passes with new upstarts showing signs that they will be a tough match. The Chargers have enough stars on both sides of the ball to be really great. They need to start putting a big winning streak together which I think they will start to do after this weekend’s game.

2. (1) New York Giants- Last week’s game didn’t sneak up on them, the Browns caught them with their pants down. One other frightening statistic showed up: the lack of a Giant pass rush which is a major question mark. To improve the Giants need to improve on that area of their game, but they won’t if they continue to play without any pressure on the qb, which then places pressure on their secondary which is clearly down with free agent defections and the need to put their quality LB’s on the defensive line. The Giants need to beef up on the pressure this week and Spags should dial it right up against a San Francisco team that is not only plagued by inconsistency but a coaching staff that needs to go back to NFL Coaching 101.

1. (2) Tennessee Titans- I usually have a policy to keep teams that were idle during the week in the same spot because they did nothing that week to prove they were better than or worse than before but I think this is justified. The Titans are a tough team with a veteran QB that will try not to trip over himself and let the defense carry them to victory. Expect big things for Bo Scaife from here on out, as he will be the go-to- guy for Kerry Collins who won’t hesitate to go for the big play but the Titans have a ground game that will open up the short passing game which means big things for the Longhorn alum. Where oh where have you gone Vince Young?


Finally here’s this week’s picks:

Titans (-9) over Chiefs- Is this even fair? The NFL definitely hand wrapped this gift to the Titans who is sure to get a confidence boost from playing this woeful Chiefs team that can’t even appease their longest sitting resident Tony Gonzalez by trading him to a contender. Don’t believe Tony, he’s a gentleman, but he doesn’t want to be there anymore.

Cowboys (-7) over Rams- Did Brett Favre’s call really make Romo start screaming for the chance to start this week? Tony, do yourself a favor and sit back and let Brad just take care of a less than stellar Rams team that played inspired. I don’t see them doing that again.

Chargers over Bills- It’s a pick em and I know that the Chargers are traveling to the east coast, and they are going to England next, but I just think they are starting to put things together to make a good run.

Steelers (-9.5) over Bengals- A game like this smells like a trap, but the Steel Curtain seemingly gets stronger as their guys get injured.

Dolphins (-3) over Ravens- I would pick the Ravens, but judging by last week’s performance by Joe Flacco and the defense, I just can’t. Plus, John Harbaugh’s comments surely do fuel the fire of a Dolphin team that is clearly playing above their heads.

Bears (-3) over Vikings- The team has quit on Childress and his boring offense. Matt Forte for rookie of the year.

Panthers (-3) over Saints- The home teams in this division have the advantage, so I’m going with history here.

Niners (+10.5) over Giants- I think the Giants will win but not in blowout fashion. (Yes I’m trying to reverse jinx my team.).

Texans (-9.5) over Lions- So how much is Andre Johnson looking forward to this match up?

Colts (-1.5) over Packers- Injuries have decimated the Packers chances at winning. Colts are coming around. Peyton and Marvin Harrison seemed to be on the same page last week against a tough Ravens D. Like the good ole days.

Jets (-3) over Raiders- I’m surprised the line is this low. The Raiders are banged up defensively and the Jets are throwing up points in bunches. I would take this line at 7 as well. By the way, I checked, there is no chance CBS is showing Heidi at 7 tonight.

Browns (+7.5) over Redskins- I agree, the Browns have come back to the Browns of last year.

Buccaneers (-10.5) over Seahawks- This is how sad the situation in Seattle has gotten.

Broncos (+3.5) over Patriots- Brandon Marshall, welcome to Monday night football (Chris Berman’s voice).

Last week: 7-7
Season: 46-40

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