Week one reaction and Week 2 picks

The problem with week one is that people get wrapped up in everything they saw. If you look at the stats you could make the assumption that:

1. Michael Turner is the best running back in the NFL.

2. The Cleveland Browns are the biggest frauds in the history of NFL pre ranked teams.

3. Eddie Royal is the best WR.

4. Jay Cutler is the best QB.

5. Tarvaris Jackson and Jamarcus Russell are the worst QB’s in the NFL.

But the unwritten rule from Week one is that you take everything with a grain of salt. Michael Turner was the best RB in the NFL week one thanks to a faulty Lions D who looked afraid to tackle. Jay Cutler looked like the best QB (especially that ridiculous throw across his body to Tony Scheffler for 72 yards!) because he faced a pass defense that looked good on paper with the big off season spending spree of Gibril Wilson and DeAngelo Hall but proved to be little match for the little rookie WR out of Virginia Tech. To think, Cutler didn’t even have Brandon Marshall who he threw to more than any QB in the league threw to any receiver on any team. It doesn’t bode well for the Broncos week 2 opponents San Diego who couldn’t stop a back up tight end when their week one opponents didn’t have their number one receiver (Panthers, Steve Smith).

Speaking of San Diego, from the “duh” department, Shawn Merriman was put to pasture for the rest of the season (a bit much of an analogy) after he refused to listen to numerous doctors that told him he needed surgery and decided to play. As crazy and stupid as that sounds, here’s a few possible reasons why he might have forgot to take his non-crazy pills:

A. There’s this kid named Jyles Tucker that A.J. Smith signed to a five year deal. Merriman’s deal ends after next year. The Chargers are notorious for replacing from within (thanks to a pretty good scouting department) and are more than willing to do so especially considering the extent of Merriman’s injury. Speed and burst are something that are lost with these injuries, major skills that defensive ends need, and if you’re Shawn Merriman how would it look if you see your already being groomed replacement just got a contract extension. Doesn’t take much for the wheels to start turning in your head.

B. YOU ARE PLAYING FOR A CONTRACT AFTER NEXT YEAR. Every kid that comes out of college signs a contract around 5 years. If you are a unmitigated disaster year one, its ok. Year two there has to be signs that you are improving. Year three you make the leap. Year four you make the Pro Bowl. By year five it doesn’t matter if you get injured or your skills slip a bit, because by that time your value is already set in the market. Well, to those who think that his market value has been set, yeah it has, but now with this injury and being forced to sit out a year and then in year five you play C- football, well how does that look. Will any team realistically look at you as not being a risk?

Still not convinced? Eh, well I tried. It doesn’t matter anyway, medicine prevailed and I’m sure his grapefruit of a knee made it clear what had to be done. Sometimes there are more important things than money, but usually we ignore that until it stings like a bee.

Speaking of injuries, I think you might have heard of Tom Brady’s injury and the growing legend of Bernard Pollard outside of the New England area. With Brady gone and the irreplaceability that it causes, Patriot fans and haters mostly assume one thing, the season is in the tank. Its safe to assume that most New Englanders aren’t ready yet to circle the wagons around Matt Cassel so quick but remember a few things that may change your mind against dropping Patriot players on your fantasy roster and your top 32’s: they still have Moss, Welker, Adalius Thomas, and Bill Belichiek, and they still are playing that cupcake schedule. So in some respects, the Tom Brady injury while devastating, came at the right time as something else fell right for Patriot fans. So don’t send your fruit baskets to Patriot fans just yet.

The Patriots also play in a division where they are still going to be favored because of an ok debut by Brett Favre and a still to be determined showing by the Buffalo Bills.

Also, how can you feel bad for a guy who’s had HIS life, and he still has Giselle. I say this is not a time to test Brady’s toughness or the Patriots ability to thrive under the pressure of playing without Brady but to see if Giselle will stay with her man now that he will be around the house more.

But thanks to all the wacky scores and injuries (3 OL for the Jags, ouch, and Marques Colston for the Saints for 4-6 weeks), lines were adjusted ridiculously which only means one thing: Vegas is trapping suckers. Too many close lines to not look suspicious. But I will give you my picks of the week. As for the Top 32? After week one there were a few positively sure things and that is, that the Rams are worse than I thought, the Falcons don’t deserve to be in the 30’s column in the rankings and the Patriots take a dip otherwise chew on this:

(previous week’s rankings in parenthesis)

32. (31) Rams- Seriously, the most pathetic showing I’ve seen. You may say that it was against a very tough opponent in Philadelphia, but they don’t have their top two receivers and their QB is the ever fragile Donovan McNabb. Sorry, that was just uber pathetic.

31. (27) San Francisco- while I still think there is talent on this roster, however, never under estimate the power of a team quitting on you.

30. (26) Oakland Raiders- speaking of iffy coaching situations that even tops the San Francisco situation, its never a good thing when the owner quits on you. Ouch, it must be tough for Lane Kiffin having that defense and a horrible starting quarterback that can’t play QB. What’s even worse: when your prized first round pick takes HIMSELF out of the game when he got a little bruise. Not a good start for the Run DMC era. Could be the most overhyped guy from last year’s draft class.

29. (32) Kansas City Chiefs- the only reason they are up three spots is because Brady went down and ultra sensitive Brodie Croyle went down too. Doesn’t Brodie seem destined for spot duty on “the Hills”? His name does anyway. I like this Damon Huard to Dwayne Bowe connection. Even if it didn’t work last Sunday in the waning moments of that Patriot game I see good things for fantasy owners.

28. (28) Detroit Lions- Why the no shift in their position? Well let me answer this question with another: do you foresee them at any point in the season moving from this position? Yeah, I didn’t think so.

27. (30) Atlanta Falcons- Usually a rookie at QB, left tackle, and head coach are recipes for disaster, but the Falcons did a good job at dispelling that theory. Nice two headed monster at RB they have, let’s now see if they can keep this going.

26. (24) Cincinatti Bengals- Brady’s injury made the archive crew get busy on designing a list of QB’s that had to come back after a setback like the one he had last week, well, that brought into focus how well Palmer has played since his own knee injury. Not encouraging news Pat fans.

25. (29) Miami Dolphins- baby steps by Tuna’s Fins (sounds redundant huh?) but his three year plan seems to be coming along quicker than we all imagined thanks to Chad Pennington. You can never say enough about the value of a intelligent QB.

24. (18) Seattle Seahawks- Sorry, when your RB, and two of your best WR’s go on the IR, its never a good thing. The defense will keep them in games but not much on offense spells disaster for the Hawks.

23. (21) Arizona Cardinals- I thought that having a pissed off Anquan Boldin would strengthen his resolve to play for a new contract and it has, but its not resulting in much. I do like this young defense. My opinion on this team will change weekly I feel.

22. (20) Washington Redskins- If you don’t know how to run a simple two minute offense, your team sucks. I was there in person and i was shocked they were so lackadaisical in such a close game with that little time on the clock. Shocked!

21. (25) Cleveland Browns- People may think I’m jumping on their bandwagon. I’m not. The NFL is firmly on their bandwagon this year for better or worse. I’m thinking its for worse. This week against the Steelers may be another tough game to swallow for Brown fans.

20. (23) Denver Broncos- Cautiously optimistic to see what Jay Cutler can cook up with two really good wideouts and a good TE. Their defense is the only question mark.

19. (22) Tennessee Titans- In the bizarre headline department I thought the Tatum Bell/Rudi Johnson was the best (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3567561), but this one with Vince Young is beyond weirdhttp://www.courant.com/services/newspaper/printedition/sports/hc-nflup0911.artsep11,0,6736640.story. The funniest part is envisioning Vince Young at his friend’s house as the police break through their door, dropping a chicken wing, with a surprised look on his face saying “what’s going on?” Seriously guys, you can’t make up how funny that was. As for the team, their defense is beastly with Albert Haynesworth set to make a killing on the free agent market and Kyle VandenBosch and Jevon Kearse in a time portal playing freakish again. But any team with Kerry Collins starting at QB screams x factor.

18. (19) Tampa Bay Bucs- I like Brian Griese and he seems to get a job everywhere because he’s got that whole “this is what a starting QB looks like” look going for him, but he’s not a starting QB in the league. Especially not in that suddenly competitive south division that most everyone thought was theirs from the jump.

17. (15) Baltimore Ravens- I know, why am I moving them down if they won their first game? They won against the Bengals and the Ravens defense was solid but their offense is the only real question. When they score 30 points against a sound team wake me up, otherwise, the defense and offense are still warring even if Flacco got points for that block on that double reverse.

16. (16) New Orleans Saints- when they win a road game, someone talk to me. Plus, they lost Marques Colston for the year. Now they have to depend on Robert Meachem actually showing up to a game and playing. I’ll believe it when I see it.

15. (12) Houston Texans- I’m going to chalk that loss up to playing a better than I thought Steelers team that is intent on running the football, limiting Roethlisberger’s impact on the passing game and playing hard nosed defense. Meanwhile, Mario Williams (2 sacks, and a forced fumble) is just filthy. I can’t stop saying it enough.

14. (14) Buffalo Bills- Chalk that victory up to a Seahawks team losing wide receivers like college students lose brain cells after a wild dorm party. The Bills got some exciting players and I like what I saw from their defense.

13. (13) New York Jets- That was not a win so much as an escape. You want to talk escape? How about a trip back to the Meadowlands to face the Patriots minus the pretty boy. How lucky and fortunate the Jets have been since the Green Bay/Favre fiasco.

12. (10) Minnesota Vikings- How many Vikings fans are talking themselves into getting excited for the Gus Frerrote era? How many more 3 man hits at the point of attack can Adrian Petersen take?

11. (17) Chicago Bears- the award for the team that got their swagger back. This team looks good. That Matt Forte is a keeper huh? The defense is hungry again. If they can keep their guys on the field for the season, they should be in it in what should be a competitive NFC North.

10. (4) Jacksonville Jaguars- Why the huge dump? Well, they lost three offensive lineman for the season to injuries and are trying to replace cogs at those positions with some fill ins which will make their reported jump over the Colts this year much more difficult. Plus they need their rookies that came to camp late to speed up the playbook get to know me’s so they can start rushing the passer. Absolutely no semblance of a running game and Garrard looks like he will pass his INT total from last year by week 2.

9. (11) Carolina Panthers- What did I tell you? There are a lot of guys who need to rebound this year and are starting to. Wait till they get Steve Smith back in this rotation. Should be good. By the way, read up on this Dante Rosario kid, he’s a heckuva athlete.

8. (8) Philadelphia Eagles- They whooped the worst team in the NFL without their two best WR’s. What do you want me to read into that? They would’ve beat them worse if they had both of them playing? DeSean had a less than stellar opening game against a team that should’ve been his red carpet.

7. (9) Dallas Cowboys- They beat a very overhyped team. Want me to throw a parade? Next week, if they handily beat the Eagles then I will put them in my top 5. That’s my word. But it must be by a healthy margin.

6. (6) Giants- Wasn’t overly impressed with how they played. Sixteen points in the first half, and none in the second. Thanks to Washington’s ineptitude, they were able to win. Defense must add more pressure. Seemed like they tired after a while.

5. (1) New England Patriots- No Brady, no championship. Unless this is Brady part deaux, which no one is holding their breath waiting for, then sure I’m wrong but there’s no way lightning strikes twice. Right?

4. (3)Indianapolis Colts- They lost against a better than we thought team but still. Peyton Manning looked like Vinny Testaverde in the pocket. That’s never a good comparison, no matter what decade I’m talking.

3. (5) Pittsburgh Steelers- I like this team. I like them a lot. Willie Parker is the guy no one talked about because of Rashard Mendenhall’s fantasy sleeper status. Talk about sleeper status. Who saw that game coming out of Fast Willie?

2. (7) Green Bay Packers- I really enjoyed that game Monday night and felt good for another team’s QB for the first time ever. That boy Rodgers is good. Made some throws he had no business of making and got them for touchdowns. Should be a solid player with a very good defense behind him. Team is built well all around.

1. (2) San Diego Chargers- With the elimination of Tom Brady, this is the year that Norv Turner fully realizes his potential, takes a team to as far as he can take them and loses in the Super Bowl in heartbreaking fashion. Sorry kids, this script is way too easy to write.

Now onto the games:

GreenBay (-6.5) over the Lions- How can you take the Lions seriously? Big day for Ryan Grant.

Oakland (+3.5) over Kansas City- Seems like the NFL’s version of rivalry week. I like Oakland because no defense can play as poorly as they did last week. I like their secondary to get better and their run D was pretty good against the Broncos cut block scheme so there is SOME sort of hope in Oakland.

Giants (-9) over St. Louis Rams- This is a toss up. I know the Giants will win this game but that spread is over the top for me. The Giants should take care of business on the road and the obvious road warrior mentality will win out. This team should beat the Rams who looked atrocious against an offense missing two starting WR’s. As you can clearly see I’m slowly walking myself to the other side and taking the Rams because of the spread. But too bad the Rams are that horrible.

Minnesota (+2.5) over the Colts- I just didn’t like how Peyton looked in the pocket. That bursa sac has been bothersome to him and it showed. They need to put points on a defense that should be stout against the run. Plus, its AT Minny, doesn’t bode well for Peyton.

Tennessee (-1) over Bengals- Tennesee defense is just beastly. Should make for good field position and with a limited field, expect big things for Chris Johson.

New Orleans (-1) over Washginton- I think the New Orleans bandwagon begins to get crammed after this game. Should be a blowout.

Carolina (+3.5) over Chicago- This is a classic pick em contest because Vegas just could not see them coming. Should be a defensive struggle but you know how those projected defensive stalemates end up, should be a shoot out. I like Delhomme’s realigned arm to whatever arm the Bears throw.

Buffalo (+5.5) over Jacksonville- I think the Bills win this game. I like the return game and the options that Trent Edwards has. Plus, he has a healthy offensive line. If the Bills get a push up front, forget it.

San Franscisco (+3) over Seahawks- Why? I don’t know. I like being dangerous and daring. I’m going on a hunch here.

Atlanta (+3.5) over Tampa Bay- 2-0 already? Can this be? Sure, why not? Tampa has that QB issue to over come and look for Turner and Norwood to keep having a solid debut in Atlanta. Sorry Tampa I’ve never been a believer.

Jets (-1.5) over the Patriots- the Jets should win this game, not handily. Should be very very close. Never can trust that Belichiek.

Miami (+4.5) Arizona Cardinals- I liked the fight the Dolphins showed. They may not have the kind of weapons on offense that the Cardinals do but they have speed up front which should play well on that turf in phoenix.

San Diego (-1) over Denver- LT is the difference here.

Pittsburgh (-6.5) over Cleveland- Another home game for the Browns, another disappointment at the Dawg pound. I’m really impressed by the linebackers of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Baltimore (+4.5) over the Texans- the hurricane has postponed this game to Monday night, but the Ravens should be ready. They have Willis McGahee projected to come back and plus, I liked how the Jim Harbaugh era started. I like what they are doing here. Should be a fun game.

Dallas (-3.5) over Philly- Should be close until after halftime where the Cowboys realize the Eagles are playing with Hank Baskett and DeSean Jackson as their number one and two receivers. Just in time for me to head to bed.

Last Week: 10-6

Season: 10-6

That’s all folks, have a good one.