week 3 picks

Week one is about the initial excitement, and the overall wow factor of football coming back. Teams that should not be winning, win and suddenly half of the league’s fan bases suddenly believe they have a chance at a winner. The other half think very little of week one mishaps. Hey, Kansas City had a chance at knocking off the Patriots sans Tom Brady (Mr. World QB).

But when trends continue into week 2, alarm bells start ringing. Suddenly its not just week one excitement, but identities about a team’s season begin to form. Week 3 is the absolute end of it all. By week 3, there is enough evidence there to tell what kind of a team is actually assembled and bettors get a better idea of how to check point swings.

So with week 2 games, what did we learn?

1. Aaron Rodgers, two starts, two statement victories.
2. This Matt Cassell project might be better than envisioned but they better score more.
3. The Rams, Lions and Dolphins do stink.
4. The NFC East is truly the division of champions.
5. The balance of power is in the NFC.


Here’s the power rankings, as I see them:
(Last week’s rankings)
32. (32) St Louis Rams- what do you want me to say about a team that has an entire fan base already booing them during the middle of the second quarter in their home opener!
31. (29) Kansas City Chiefs- Ok, so I over estimated their abilities. I have a feeling
their rankings will change weekly.
30. (28) Detroit Lions- Who would have thunk that after 3 consecutive drafts of
selecting a wide receiver in the first round, that their strength would have come from two big wide receivers? I sure didn’t and something tells me that neither did Matt Millen.
29. (26) Cincinatti Bengals- One touchdown, with two Prow Bowl receivers. How
does that happen? Mr. Palmer, meet Mr. Tuck.
28. (30) Oakland Raiders- The only reason they are this high is because Run DMC,
otherwise they have a coach who doesn’t speak to his owner/GM, or the defensive coordinator and a QB who couldn’t crack a high school team right now.
27. (27) Atlanta Falcons- They have a rookie coach, QB, and left tackle; can’t play
the Lions every week Falcon fans.
26. (25) Miami Dolphins- I don’t see this improving with New England coming to South Miami.
25. (31) San Francisco 49ers- They might have a solid QB, and an offensive genius. They have the talent in place, they just need someone to make that engine go.
24. (24) Seattle Seahawks- No WR’s, no wins. No respect.
23. (21) Cleveland Browns- Can’t give a team respect for a loss, but they fought a
very good Steeler team hard.
22. (23) Arizona Cardinals- Finally, Kurt Warner in 2001 form. Go Cards go!
21. (15) Houston Texans- They had a bye and they went down. Cruel? No, I just think that some teams showed me a lot.
20. (17) Baltimore Ravens- again, not that they did worse by sitting it out thanks to Ike, but still, do you trust their offense?
19. (16) New Orleans Saints- Lost a game to a confused Redskins team that were looking for a reason to lose that game. Let them come back from a 9 point deficit. Good teams know how to close.
18. (18) Tampa Bay Bucs- Nothing about their offense scares me. Their defense still is good. Underrated unit every year.
17. (22) Washington Redskins- Did they come to sleep last week? That’s all the NFC East needed, another team to start making noise.
16. (20) Denver Broncos- Showed me a lot last week with that victory but they still can’t cover a shadow.
15. (13) New York Jets- Had the chance to take the division by the throat and they let a guy who hadn’t played a meaningful snap in over 9 years beat them.
14. (19) Tennesee Titans- their defense is stout but as a Giant fan, I know that Kerry Collins can excite a fan base and let them down. Trust me, I’ve seen this play out
13. (11) Chicago Bears- Looks like 2006 all over again. If their offense can limit the mistakes, they can win games. Is Trent Dilfer retired for good?
12. (12) Minnesota Vikings- why didn’t they move? I’m curious to see if Gus Frerrote can right anything in this team.
11. (10) Jacksonville Jaguars- I don’t know where this team went.
10. (14) Buffalo Bills- I don’t want everyone to catch on to the buzz.
9. (1) San Diego Chargers- How much more bad luck can one franchise suffer through?
8. (9) Carolina Panthers- Surprise? Why should you be? Their QB is finally healthy and so is their star defensive end. They have their best rushing team in years.
7. (4) Indianapolis Colts- No Bob Sanders, a patchwork offensive line and Peyton has to constantly come back against a team that can only make field goals. Not exactly a super power.
6. (8) Philadelphia Eagles- They showed me a lot on Monday. The best news about that game was that Donovan McNabb is back to his healthy self. Sure looked like no one on that Cowboy defense could bring him down.
5. (5)New England Patriots- Won a very good game but showed me that if they play like that against other top teams, they will lose. Not everyone will run it three straight times on 1st and goal with a hall of fame type quarterback.
4. (7) Dallas Cowboys- Boy, they looked good on offense, but their defense seemed like they couldn’t stop much else.
3. (6) New York Giants- they looked good and a 3-0 record seems like almost a certainty.
2. (3) Pittsburgh Steelers- Won a gritty game against a divisional rival, but Big Ben is a bit injured. So they don’t get the top spot.
1. (2) Green Bay Packers- Seems a bit odd that I would put them here? Why? They showed a lot in winning that game against the Lions. A game where they rushed to a lead, lost their focus then blew them out after losing the lead. A team needs some pride and swagger. The Pack definitely showed that last week.



Ok, here are the picks for week 3:

Falcons (-5.5) over Chiefs- Yeah, how can I pick the Chiefs in this game? Especially a team that let Darren McFadden go wild last week. They gave up 233 yards rushing in the SECOND HALF! Expect good things from Michael Turner.

Bills (-9.5) over Raiders- I would pick the Raiders, but too bad they are so one dimensional and they don’t have a QB that can throw a simple slant pattern. Did you know that Jamarcus Russel completed ONE pass to a WR? How are they going to win with that kind of offense?

Titans (-5.5) over Texans- Chris Johnson was what I like to call, the community sleeper pick. Everyone and their mother had him as their sleeper. Why not? He ran the fastest 40 time in the combine and he was a slasher, something the Titans needed to compliment their bruiser, LenDale White. The Titans main strength however is their defense, giving Kerry Collins and Co. a smaller field. Texans are struggling, and against a unit that is giving up barely 150 yards passing, the Texans should be in for a long day.

Dolphins (+13) over Pats- People may call me foolish, but let give you a bit of information about this Dolphins team. They play better than their record. It’s a divisional game. Their QB is very familiar with this Patriots team. Plus, funny things happen to the Patriots team (even with Tom Brady) when they visit South Florida. For the offense that showed up last week, they should not be favored by this much.

Bears (-3) over Bucs- They are eerily similar, but I like the Bears defense to get one more touchdown than the Bucs.

Seahawks (-9.5) over Rams- Remember when this game actually mattered? If this were 2002, then I’d say this was the game of the week. But both these teams stink sitting 0-2. As bad as the Rams have been, the Seahawks are just as unlucky. Losing most of your depth chart of wide receivers to season ending injuries is just bad. But, the Rams are just absolutely horrible.

Panthers (+3.5) over Vikings- I’ve been picking the Panthers all season long, why would I change that now? Plus, the Vikings are starting Gus Frerrote, the same guy who injured himself by head butting the wall in celebration.

49ers (-4) over Lions- I know I’m asking for trouble in this game, but I like what the niners have been doing on offense. They have a pretty good thing going right now, and they should be having an easy time against the Lions. I mean, cmon, it’s the Lions. They came back from a 24 point deficit and STILL lost by 23. Only the Lions can do that to themselves.

Giants (-13) over Bengals- I know I should pick the Bengals here with the amount of points on the line here. But, I just think that the Giants are going to harass Carson Palmer into a frenzy. Plus, Earth, Wind and Fire should have a field day today.

Steelers (+3) over Eagles- The one thing that stood out about that Monday Night thrill fest was that both these teams looked really beatable. Very beatable. This of course coming on the hunch that Big Ben is not as injured as some think.

Cards (+3) over Redskins- Call it my hunch game of the week. I like this WR tandem.

Jaguars (+5) over Colts- No Bob Sanders and a horrible offensive line. But the Jags offense is easily better than the Vikings, and they should be able to make the Colts pay for giving them so many chances.

Ravens (-2.5) over Browns- The one shining light when your star running back goes down, is that you begin to expand the back up’s role and sometimes you are pleasantly surprised. Turns out, Cam Cameron was that guy. He was surprised by Ray Rice and LeRon McClain’s production. He did however say that he would not only increase their role in the offense, but also McGahee’s role. We should see McGahee in more passing downs and as a second option. Get giddy fantasy fans.

Saints (+5.5) over Broncos- This is going to be a fun game. But I’m taking the Broncos if I see Ed Hochuli within five miles of this game.

Packers (+3) over Cowboys- Pack against the ‘Boys. Again, I just like what I see from Aaron Rodgers. He never seems flustered and never seems to think any situation is bigger than it is. Guess he must’ve learned SOMETHING from that Favre guy. As for the Cowboys, their defense looks VERY beatable. Did I miss something or did these guys grow older and fatter within a season? They are the classic case of a team that thinks they are going to be handed the championship and don’t have to work for it. They might be regular season champs but they won’t be able to lock it up when it counts.

Wait, did I just reverse jinx the Cowboys? Oh God. I meant to say football gods is that the Boys are a good team and this is their year! See how I made everything right?

Jets (+10) over Chargers- I know the Chargers lost their two games by a combined 2 points, but still, you can’t possibly think that they are 10 points better than the Jets. I don’t! Expect a good day from Mr. Cotchery and Mr. Favre. If Mangini calls 3 run plays at the goal line, I demand he be fired!

last Week: 8-7
Season: 18-13