Week 5 picks

Week 5 is here and after all the compromising, wheeling and dealing done, I can’t help but think about one thing I watched this week. The NFL Network’s America’s Game series is one of the best, and really well done docu-series of Super Bowl Champions every year. It does a good job in going inside a team’s season and the most compelling storylines ever year.
I only got the NFL Network when I switched from cable to Dish Network two years ago, just in time for the Giants to win the Super Bowl. I read all the local newspapers so I kind of knew every storyline that they would play up in the docu-series, but for people who weren’t involved, I’m sure the angle with the fued between Tiki and Eli during the beginning of the season and the defense being atrocious the first two weeks, and everything was eye opening to many who didn’t follow the Giants as closely and so gave the viewer a new perspective on how this underdog was building up to the upset in the Super Bowl over the heavily favored Patriots.
One thing every team has in common is that there is a turning point game with either a statement victory or a statement play that the team rides to a Super Bowl victory. The Giants two years ago had just given up 80 points in two games in Steve Spagnuolo’s first year as defensive coordinator and then came the Redskins game. They were finally winning one and had to make a defensive stand at the goal line. They did and the confidence gotten from that victory helped them for the rest of the season.
Since watching that series, I’ve begun to pay attention to storylines around teams that have the ability to go on a run that can propel them into the playoffs and eventually even win the Super Bowl.
The good thing about that is its not so laborious as you might think. The NFL is the only sport that talks about parity and actually sees it played out. In baseball, how many people actually thought that revenue sharing despite all its wonderful traits, was going to prevent a team like the $200 million payroll to get into the playoffs. Of course the counter to that argument are the Mets. Well, let’s not talk about the Mets season yet, I’m still recovering from the season and every time I think about it, it makes me get a sour taste on my mouth and I have to immediately drink a gallon of water just to get it out.
But this season, the disparity between the NFL’s best and NFL’s worst is so alarming. Last year we had 4 winless teams heading into week 5, this year its 6. In 2007 it was only 3. A majority of the franchises in 2007 had legitimate hope that despite their record, there was still a sliver of hope. Heck, last year, people in Detroit had hope despite going winless the entire year because they were losing very tight games so it told you that it had some kind of talent to work with, it just wasn’t going well.
This year, try and make a case for KC, Oakland, Cleveland St. Louis, and Tampa. They are a combined 1-19 and I’m sure their fan bases have already begun packing away their football stuff and go to football stadiums merely to watch the opposition play. Sad. You can even sense that the fans of Carolina and Tennessee are kind of in “uh-oh” mode as they look at their seasons going down the drain.
Despite all that, there’s one storyline that’s going so under the radar that it won’t hit us until Super Bowl Sunday when all we have to watch are those “how they got there” segments that make you go, “oh, I see.” Well it does for me.
Is it Michael Crabtree buckling under the overwhelming realization that he has no leverage and he better sign now or is it the Jets after Mark Sanchez’s first truly horrific performance sending a message to their team by trading for Braylon Edwards? Is it the Saints winning because of their defense instead of in spite it or the Giants putting to rest all those questions about who’s going to replace Plaxico Burress? Is it Tony Romo finally being able to utilize all that talent he has and beginning to realize…wait, what am I saying. That will NEVER happen.

Here are my picks of course picking against Vegas, with Vegas but most importantly FOR Vegas:

GIANTS (-16.5) Over Raiders- When I saw where this line opened at the beginning of the week, I was almost tempted to pick the Raiders. Their defense has been decent. They have a decent defensive line and have arguably the best corner not living on Revis Island. But then I realized that the Raiders continue to miserably trek through the JaMarcus Russell experiment and I came to my senses. JaMarcus Russell looks like QB’s who have long retired with all that extra baggage in the front tummy area. Just because the guy can throw a pretty pass does not mean he can operate an NFL offense and its clear both his conditioning and preparation are huge areas of concern to any person in the Raider organization and then I realize, wait, this is the Raiders we’re talking about here. The Giants defense should have a field day against this Raiders team playing without Darren McFadden but more importantly playing WITH JaMarcus Russell.

Vikings (8.5) Over RAMS- You can label this the classic let down game for Brett Favre. Just came off an adrenaline boosting victory over your former employer and basically destroyed your reputation with a fan base that worshipped you for 16 years. Walking into St Louis against a team that may or may not be owned partially by Rush Limbaugh. Favre now is playing for all liberals in America everywhere who just don’t like smug, overweight, racist know it alls who don’t really know anything at all.

Cowboys (8.5) over CHIEFS- I thought last week was the classic Tony Romo break out game where he takes advantage of a lesser talented team. What we know now is that Denver IS for real. What was great about that last drive for the Cowboys was even when Romo made that great play to get a first down (the classic Romo tease play), I had no doubt he would ruin it in the end and lose the game. There’s a certain limit to Romo’s skills we have seen and to unlock the remaining amount of potential is to change not just the coach (duh), but also to change the offensive coordinator. I may make fun of Tony Romo but the play calling in the red zone has been absolutely atrocious and its almost insulting sometimes. Just imagine if the Cowboys had switched the play call from “let’s keep challenging a top 3 cornerback on the game’s final two plays on the same play to the same receiver” to “let’s throw a jump ball to Martellus Bennett” like they did in Carolina. Not only do the Cowboys and Romo look unprepared for situational football its clear that the play calling sets them back even further. Either way, this game should be the game where Romo lovers get excited about because they are going to swear that Romo is regaining his confidence. Let’s hope so, because if there’s anything better than Romo looking bad, its watching Romo backers put him on a pedestal and watching the legs come out from underneath them.

Redskins (+3.5) over Panthers- Common sense says that if there’s one week to make a push its this week for the Panthers. Only, I think the Redskins D is playing pretty well for a team who’s offense makes them look anything but. I don’t know if anyone will want to show up for this game but if you do no one will fault you for wanting to not show up or just staying in the parking lot tailgating for the day.

EAGLES (-13.5) over Bucs- I feel bad for the Bucs. Raheem Morris is clearly over his head in trying to turn this thing around. What hurt more was that they let go of Derrick Brooks who was the emotional center of this team and would’ve been the undisputed leader in the clubhouse. You get the feeling that there is nothing close to that on this team. Their best option at QB is a guy who the coach already labeled as his best option at back up QB. This week’s game against Philly will not be good, nor close. One negative for Philly: Can they tell DeSean Jackson to stop trying to injure himself when he scores a TD? Everytime he scores, his celebrations aren’t the kind that get you pumped, more like, phew, ok DeSean, get to the sideline. When you have to think about whether it was a good TD dance then it wasn’t.

BILLS (-6.5) over Browns- I played into the whole mystique of playing in Buffalo against the Saints and I promised myself from here on out, I would use my head when making picks and not trusting in any kind of factor outside of what happens on the football field. But with the Browns coming in, I’m going to go into playing in Buffalo against a team that is going in transition who may or may not have quit on his coach a long time ago. There’s a growing movement of people who think Trent Edwards suck. I don’t think he sucks but he’s in that Tony Romo class: he shows enough for people to overvalue him but has enough sucky moments for people who think with their head to never be confused.

RAVENS (-8.5) over Bengals- I’ve been on the Bengal bandwagon since I first saw the Hard Knocks episode where OchoCinco introduced “child please” into the urban slang dictionary. But they are going against a team that’s pissed off that they lost a game and I like John Harbaugh. He knows what to say to his team to get them prepared and has a feel for what his team can do and always has them prepared. I like coaches who don’t overstate their importance and don’t think they need to do anything more than just be an overseer of how the game plan is implemented and capable of making tough decisions on the fly. I like a big day for our boy Flacco who continues to impress as the 9,000 page offensive playbook of Cam Cameron’s gets opened up even more every week.

Steelers (-10.5) over Lions- Last week was the first time there was any kind of pulse from the Steelers running game. It serves them well. The first few weeks you saw Santonio Holmes emerging as the go-to guy in an offense that has clearly become passer friendly. I love what Mike Tomlin did to Rashad Mendenhall and simple ploys and tricks always do well to drive home the simple point: if you don’t put forth the effort, you will never succeed.

49ERS (-2.5) over Falcons- The Niners coming off an impressive victory over the Rams and the Falcons coming off a bye after a decisive defeat at the hands of the Patriots. I like how the Niners are playing and how they are constructed and the general electricity of the Crabtree signing. I think this game will be close but nothing leads me to believe that the Niners won’t beat the Falcons by at least a touchdown.

BRONCOS (+3.5) over Patriots- Yes, I said it. Not because of any previously held bias. I just feel that the personnel on the Broncos match up well against the personnel on the Patriots. I know that everyone in America feel strongly in the Patriots and what they have accomplished but with a pass rusher like Elvis Dumervil (who’s lack of size actually helps him more than takes away from his game) and with receivers galore and a coach who’s building up the Patriot way in Denver, its tough. I know Kyle Orton is no Tom Brady but he doesn’t make mistakes (0 interceptions) and is content with throwing the football away than take sacks. I just don’t see the same confident Brady and that shaky Brady might show up in Denver where the Broncos have won the last 3 of 4.

CARDINALS (-5.5) over Texans- I love this match up. I love the Cardinals here coming off a bye where they were able to settle down and get timing with the receivers. Look for a big day for Kurt Warner.

Jaguars (-2.5) over SEAHAWKS- Remember when the Seahawks had a great home field advantage? Remember when this might have been the Super Bowl match up just a few years ago? Ugh.

Colts (-3.5) over TITANS- Its clear Vegas is not ready to give up on the Titans. This is the make it or break it week for Kerry Collins who clearly is the best QB option for this team but I understand why they are going to make that decision to try out Vince Young. What fan’s might not know is that with Vince Young’s contract comes up after this season and the Titans need to see what they have before they either commit to more of Young or let him loose. It’s the kind of organizational decision that might set them back for the rest of year but a necessary one that needs to be done. Peyton should have an easy time on Sunday night.

Jets (-1.5) over DOLPHINS- Not because they got Braylon Edwards this week, but more because they got Calvin Pace back. Adding him and returning Vernon Gholston to a reserve role suits the team better. That Channing Crowder/Leon Washington thing is pure comedy. Leon Washington’s response to Channing Crowder saying he hates Leon Washington: “tell Clam Chowder that I’m coming for him.” Hilarious.

Last week: 7-7
Season: 37-25