Week 4 picks

So I’ve caught major flack because I haven’t posted my win loss record so before I get to any picks, I’d like to state for the record that:
Week One: 11-5
Week Two: 9-7
Week Three: 10-6

Which for all you math buffs is an astoundingly mediocre W-L record of 30-18. That kind of naivete will only get you condescending pats on the back and a lot of whispering amongst other people and pointing and concerned looks by other people, and other behavior of the sort.

So how else to fix this impending social situation than to come back with a very strong surge starting in Week 4 which will show the world that me DVR’ng and then constantly watching Jets and Giants highlights as if it counted in my line of work, is not the work of weak and pathetic losers.

Therefore, I’m journeying on a the pathway to knowledge and further enlightenment, I hope you enjoy the ride internet:
(HOME TEAM in caps.)

Bucs (+7.5) over REDSKINS- I’m not screaming upset, but I might be saying it in a very light voice that neither stops people in their tracks, yet at the same time is loud enough for people to over hear you. There’s nothing like a good ole horror show in the nation’s capital to boost town morale and this week’s showing had better be good Zorn. Despite his rather weak imitation of a head coach since taking over and riding a 6-2 start, the Zorn era has drawn criticism from both the old and young alike which of course as we all know is bad. When you’re not being helped by any demographic, its probably a sign that perhaps your show is not working. On the other hand, the Bucs were so putrid last week that fans sarcastically cheered when they finally managed to cross that very difficult 1st down marker, midway through the third quarter. Despite all of that, a glimmer of hope emerged and his name is Josh Johnson. True, he didn’t guide them to the endzone, but they were the furthest in the field that they were ever going to be. By the way, if Byron Leftwich takes that long to pass the football, its fair to say that if you were to fight him odds of punching him and then waiting for him to hit you back would give you a pretty sizable advantage in the speed department right?

Ravens (+1.5) over PATRIOTS- Last week it was home teams, this week away teams are more my flavor and this week’s match up pits the second of that amazing QB class of 2008 where Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco went to already solid ballclubs with amazing leaders and thrived in a very stable environment: SURPRISE (note: heavy sarcasm). These two teams last clashed in a very memorable Monday night affair that almost ruined Tom Brady’s perfect season (a season that was eventually ruined by the eventual Super Bowl champion New York Giants which eventually would have me elated, because eventually I bring everything back to the New York football Giants.). Since then, these two teams have lived in alternate universes. Tom Brady looks nothing like the Tom Brady we’re used to seeing. He no longer has unsung WR’s that look for empty spots in the zone coverage long before they ever look for praise, he has WR’s who are unwilling to make catches in the middle of the field for the silly fear that his body might be separated from the ball. Shame on you Mr. Galloway. The Ravens on the other hand look nothing like the fear-inducing defense that they’ve come to be known for, and look like the fear inducing defense with an offense that packs a particularly delightful punch. Which only serves to echo the songs of praise and hymn heaped upon young Flacco who for all his accomplishments has now achieved more for the state of Delaware in one year than anyone in history. That and the fact that I have the Ravens as the number one team in football has me confident that Mr. Brady’s knee which of course is connected to his boots will be shaking in discomfort at the thought that not only can the Ravens score points while on defense, they can score a lot more on offense now that Willis McGahee looks like the promising back from the U. that Buffalo drafted a while ago. Beware of the purple rain.

Detroit (+10) over CHICAGO- Listen, let’s not jump on to the Detroit bandwagon and start throwing victories into their basket just yet. I am not a fan of Cinderella stories because they preach that based sheerly on luck can this particular thing of interest achieve anything of status and stature and that it does not come from some excellent virtue or attribute you already had inside of you which was merely being shut out of your life. But I do believe the Lions are better than people think and people should stand up and notice. They play decently on defense and on offense, they can be pretty lethal. Talent wise they are worlds behind Chicago but with the momentum completely on Detroit’s side and America outside of Bear country wanting the Lions to continue, I do believe that Detroit can keep it close before Jay Cutler comes to save the day and build up this all powerful image.

Tennesee (-3) over JAGUARS- As far as 0-3 teams go, the Titans are the best. While that statement right there might not make too much sense, neither is how Jeff Fisher’s mustache and semi-mullet and deep voice making for an all-together creepy package, have passed through the comedic cracks all these years. Until now. Well, he’s, he’s….a really nice guy so I’d rather see him patch up a victory against the Jaguars who clearly have no shot of doing anything except randomly patching together really good games for Maurice Jones-Drew for fantasy purposes. Has any man ran with 4 really good games a season like MJD?

HOUSTON (-9) over Raiders- Finally a home team takes care of their business. Or do they? The Texans are the type of team that you’d really have to be following to have any type of clue as to how they will perform. Some days they can look like the sleeper team that every media darling pats themselves on the back for picking and some days they are the franchise that looks like they have David Carr still to peel off the ground and about three defenders. Fact is, the Texans have accumulated some good amount of talent yet don’t have a coach capable of translating that talent to playoff caliber. Gary Kubiak’s an assistant head coach and should never leave that post nor should ever convince anyone he’s anything else.

Bengals (-6) over BROWNS- Once again road teams curry up favor with me and for good reason. The Browns are in such a pathetic mess that people are stealing $3 bottle of waters just so Eric Mangini can fine them a ridiculous sum which inevitably leads to the player filing a complaint. Of course, Mr. Mangini’s tired tactics had him run out of New York where both his message and tenure seem like eons ago thanks to Rex Ryan’s more player friendly approach. The Bengals on the other hand are rewarding their coach for believing in them when no one else would and even defied all logic by appearing on Hard Knocks yet and then having that stunning week 1 loss on a fluke play only to put it all together and come away with impressive victories over the Packers and Steelers; two contenders. Which of course means that this game should be decided pretty early. Those Browns can be feisty, but I don’t expect much especially considering Cleveland’s love affair with two QB’s who clearly can’t cut it either way while employing one QB on the roster that the coach clearly prefers over either. Clearly the Mangenious has opted to employ the old turn everyone on each other and then bring them all back with my plan route which of course has only worked once in history: the 2007 Giants and Tom Coughlin. But Mangini is no Coughlin and Brett Ratliff is no Eli Manning.

COLTS (-10.5) over Seahawks- No matter how high this line was going to be I was determined to pick the Colts. The ten and a half line is a tad high and usually these kind of lines come back to haunt me, but I’m going into charted waters so I feel confident in the arm of Peyton Manning enough to get over my fear. Peyton’s stat line continues to amaze me. No matter how much turnover this guy has, it never fazes him. He’s clearly hit the part of his career where his team is no longer going to threaten for a championship but where he’s going to put on performances that constantly remind us of why announcers trip over themselves to congratulate them. However, while his playing career arc may be on the way down, hopefully his days of doing commercials and SNL hosting duties are not. The Seahawks are dealing with QB issues, defensive issues and now a coach who has taken much after his father and has raised the bar on press conferences after completely throwing his kicker under the bus. As if kickers aren’t completely trashed by industry standards, to have the coach of your team with all the emotion from a tough loss still lingering like cigarette smoke on clothes, comes out and destroys any confidence you have in him or the position. I suppose Olindo Mare and all kickers did something terrible in former lives to be serving this punishment and admonishment.

Giants (-9) over CHIEFS- If last week’s game wasn’t the trap game surely this week is. Its been years since a team has went 3-0 over a stretch of consecutive road games as the Giants are about to undertake but this team has a different feel to it. Through the early portion of the meaty schedule, the Giants can feast on weaker opponents and hope to rest some of their more bruised players for a rough stretch starting in two weeks. But the Giants have decided to give defensive coordinators something to chew on. This new emphasis on the passing game is due to the fact that the Giants running attack has been swallowed up by the dreaded 8 men in the box. That of course leaves man coverage over the top which means that defenses are daring Manning to throw. This is of course all by design. Without the threat of a passing attack, the Giants will look as inferior as they did during the final stretch of the season where they couldn’t buy a win. When most good teams can key in on your weaknesses, its not a good thing. Giants win this one handily and rest their starters by the 4th quarter.

Bills (-1.5) over DOLPHINS- As far as nostalgia goes, Chad Pennington was one of my favorite guys. Every person has a thing for a marginally talented player. Pennington never had the strongest arm and usually got injured too many times to count but when he was on the field, he was probably the smartest player on the field, rarely made mistakes when in the red zone thus never killing drives and threw some of the prettiest and most accurate deep balls in the game. In fact, his completion percentage is still the best out of all players currently playing under center. In fact, his completion percentage on passes over 20 yards is the best as well. In fact, I know all this because I followed his career very well through his younger years with the Jets until he was finally betrayed by them for the eternal Brett Favre. Of course now with his potentially career threatening injury, mostly people are talking about him in the past tense. This is of course the same man who won Comeback player of the year twice. His third time might be the most charming. As far as this game is concerned, the Bills bring more offense (with the return of the ugliest mug, Marshawn Lynch) to the table and with Chad Henne, the threat of the play fake and Wild Cat just won’t be there. Ronnie Brown needs to control the clock in order for this game to go the way of the Flippers. By the way, Landshark Stadium is a terrible name for a stadium, but luckily there are places like McAfee Colisseum, and the recently added Mall of America Field to take the pressure off.

SAINTS (-7) over Jets- As much as I’d like to see the Jets win this game, I just don’t see it happening. The Jets 3-0 start is neither miraculous nor surprising considering 11 games into the season they were considered heavy favorites to make the playoffs and go deep. The Saints meanwhile have addressed the pressing concerns over their defense and run game which has somehow benefited with the subtraction of Deuce McCalister. Most would assume I’m picking the Saints because of their offense, however its their defense that has impressed me most and bears watching really. We know that for the last few years, the Saints can put up 30+ on anyone, but can they stop the other team has always been the question. With Greg Williams pressure filled system, they sure will find out. Meanwhile the Jets, applying as much pressure as they do up front will give him fits but its up to that banged up secondary to keep up in that track meet of a game it will end up being. The offensive line of the Saints and Jets will be key as they try to keep pressure long enough for their pretty boy QB’s to get their throws off. The team who’s QB is able to walk after this game will be the winner and that will be the Saints.

49ERS(-9.5) over Rams- The Rams performed as admirably as you can expect them to considering their QB went down and their back up’s name was Kyle Boller. Ok, so I’ve never really been that down on Kyle Boller but still, his name inspires as much confidence as David Carr in critical situation with the Giants. No matter what, Steve Spagnuolo has the Rams playing better and with pride at least which should carry over to next year as they continue to add pieces to a very dizzying puzzle. The Niners on the other hand showed me more in defeat than any other team. Their team is not a one trick pony with Frank Gore. They have Vernon Davis and this kid Coffee will surprise you. Well, they are playing the Rams, so don’t really get too excited. Either way, I expect the Niners to play really well because the culture exchange in San Fran is pointing in the right direction.

Dallas (-3) over DENVER- For some reason I’m leaning on the Broncos suddenly but I will fight the urge. Dallas up front on both sides play really well however, with the lack of pass rush the Cowboys have been getting on the QB, their secondary’s weaknesses are showing more and more. Denver has good WR’s its just that they have gone into hiding. Their surprising start shouldn’t be surprising considering who they played but I suppose there are good virtuous things to say about beating the teams you should be beating. All bets are on this game to be the one that makes me slap my head in fury wondering how stupid I could be. Damn you Cowboys again, in advance!

Chargers (+6.5) over STEELERS- I hate to do this to you Steeler fans but the fact is, I like the Chargers in this game a bit more than your Steelers. Their defense is sneaking back up there and those tall San Diego receivers will give the Steel City something to crow over. I do think however that Big Ben’s passing skills have allowed the Steelers to abandon the run a bit and go with the aerial show a little. But in past weeks they’ve relied on it a bit much and that has cost them. No team can live by the pass alone and live to tell about it, especially not with a QB that runs around as much as he does. Big Ben is like a 4 year old in the pocket, sometimes you get the sense that he’s just running around just to run around without any intent to release the football. But I like the Chargers here to come into Heinz field and pull off the upset against the Steelers.

VIKINGS (-3.5) over Packers- As much as I want to see Aaron Rodgers have the “F-U” game, its clear that the Vikings at this point are better than the Packers. Favre’s last second heave to win it against the Vikings is typical Favre: throw it as hard and as fast as you can and hope the receiver can make a play on the ball. Lost in all the “Favre has pulled a miracle” talk was the catch that Greg Lewis made to leap and come down with the football. With the new rules being the way they are, if the Niners had just pushed him out of bounds, it wouldn’t have counted. I never understood why they got rid of the push out rule since its blatantly unfair, yet I don’t see teams employing that tactic. Too many close to the sideline catches are still being made as if the rule hasn’t been thrown out for over a year already. I am not going to say that dreaded phrase “Favre is back” but his team brings more to the table than the Pack do, so as much as I disagree with white America, I must agree that Favre and the Vikes will win this one.