Week 11 picks

Resume’s have never been my strong suit. I’ve never been one to properly fill a prospective employer’s head with enough nice things about myself to get me out of my current position. Alas, if I was on the other side, and I was the person in charge of hiring the next coach, I would hold in high regard a coach’s ability to apply common sense.

Somehow, this game became the land of the experts. The coaches with the brightest minds got all the glory and the rich contracts to guide teams because as it stands to reason, the ones with the highest IQ’s are the ones that will make the best decisions. Right? Let’s look at test subject Brian Billick. His press conferences require dictionaries because of his strangle hold on the English language. While Billick was considered the offensive architect of the Minnesota Vikings efficient monster that took the 1998 team a 15-1 record and almost shattering every offensive record. Of course no one took into account that they had a motivated Randy Moss (draft value plummeted because of questions surrounding his character), soon to be Hall of Famer Cris Carter, and Randall Cunningham as the QB leading the machine. He went to coach Baltimore who believed that he could help elevate the offense to Super Bowl status because his defense was on the verge of becoming dominant. Of course, his defense took them to the championship. Who took the credit? The defensive coordinator, Marvin Lewis. He went to Cincinatti and has been the coach there. Where are they both now? Marvin Lewis is on a fast track to a pink slip and Brian Billick is dodging rumors of a Lions marriage. Not exactly a step up from his comfy studio gig on NFL Network (where his analysis has been excellent).

So why common sense? Because we never use it in the journalistic world. There has to be a more complicated answer. The stats don’t back up common sense. In this post Bill James world, our sports galaxy can only be figured out through numbers. What we can’t quantify, we disqualify.

This past weekend, and last night, common sense was thrown out the window again to a team’s detriment and the opposing team’s betterment. Andy Reid, is our first test subject. On Sunday night, in a pivotal divisional match up, Andy once again stopped using common sense and challenged two consecutive plays (which by the way, I’m wishing there was a stat for that because the odds of both plays being overturned have to be near the 1 percent line than anything else). The first play he admitted to challenging JUST to fire up his players. He used a play in which Brandon Jacobs had his knee clearly down before the ball popped out, to try and motivate his team. How exactly is that supposed to motivate anyone? He not only wasted his time, the ref’s time, and the viewing audience’s time (because that stupid Toyota commercial played again. You know the one that goes “saaaaaaaved by zeeeeeeroooooooo.” Which is this year’s “this is ouuuuuuuur countryyyyyyyy.”), but he had to forfeit a time out in the second half. Then he challenged the very next play which was a more sensible challenge, however having wasted one challenge already and a time out, wasn’t a sense of discretion necessary for the second challenge? Even if this was a closer one, you had to be absolutely sure that this was going to be overturned for you to challenge. It didn’t. And they lost another time out. Now, the Eagles had one time out remaining in the second half. Brilliant coaching.

On the other side, Tom Coughlin was urged to challenge a play in which I’m even a bit skeptical should have been overturned but nonetheless Tom played it perfectly. He questioned the call and it’s on the line, pun intended, of being a Tuck rule kind of ambiguous rule that never comes into play until somehow it rears its ugly head. He went upstairs to his guys with the rule book and a better visual with all the replays and decided that yes, it was a challenge worth taking a shot on. The point wasn’t that he challenged a close play and won, it was that he consulted with as many people as he could. He had trusted assistants who knew the rules and went with their better judgement and used discretion and saw it worthy to challenge.

Does Tom Coughlin have better people working upstairs than Andy Reid? Maybe. But that’s not the point. Decision making is sometimes more about genius, and about common sense.

Take Monday night’s game where San Francisco put on a clinic on what NOT to do in a 2 minute offense. They actually had a special alignment to spike the ball. Common sense tells you to go to the line of scrimmage as fast as you can, and spike the ball so that you can set, have some time to get a good play. But again, we don’t live in a world where common sense rules.

Want another nationally televised blunder? Last night, Randy Moss had been held down in check because of the aggressive coverage the Jets were playing all night. On the play where Moss scored the game tying touchdown in regulation, the Jets for some odd reason decided to play off him, giving him the necessary space to throw a fake and get separation. They were within 20 yards of the end zone. Cris Collinsworth is no palm reader but he questioned the decision by Ty Law to play off Moss as soon as he saw it and said this can’t be good. No sooner had those words left his lips but Matt Cassel was already slipping the would be sacker, and throwing a bullet to Moss in the corner for an easy score.

Why in God’s good name would you go away from your strategy especially when it would have been the last play had you stopped them?

Needless to say, the amount of evidence grows every week. So that’s why I say that every team should have a common sense guy. One guy who will come in and be a helpful guide to those who are unable to think logically through a situation. These will not be the terribly bright men. No, they over think situations and believe that they can fool everyone but end up only fooling themselves. The so called experts, need not apply. Only those who exhibit a good amount of common sense to know that when you need to spike the ball, you get to the line, and don’t start doing your Peyton Manning impersonation to waste time.

To bring it all together, the Lions are now in talks with Brian Billick to take over the coaching vacancy. They are hoping that the expertise that he has will serve the Lions well. This of course coming from the team that waited 7 hopelessly horrible years to fire a GM that they hired without any experience and who thought that picking a WR every year in the top 5 (where they have an annual spot in the draft), was the ticket to a good team. So here’s to common sense winning out and exploring possible other options.


Here are my Week 11 picks now:

Jets (-4) over Patriots- I want to note that this was my pick pre game but forgot to post the article and thus made changes to it. However, I did believe the Jets were going to win especially knowing that Adalius Thomas was out and then hearing that Ty Warren would be sidelined gave me added security that my pick was a good one. Of course erasing the enmity these two coaches have and the fact that they over coach sometimes in order to beat the other sometimes detracts from each. The Jets should have won easily but of course managed to keep it close against a Patriots team that at the end, deserved to win the game despite getting outplayed for 3 quarters.

Ravens (+6.5) over Giants- I think the Giants will win but this will be a 19-16 kind of game. I can’t see either team overpowering the other. Of course, the Giants defense has more of an edge over the Baltimore D than the other way around so I give the Giants the edge in this game but the Giants most certainly won’t win this handily. By the way, the dumbest question was asked the other day when it was reported that Ray Lewis was asked what it would sound like when him and Brandon Jacobs collide.

Falcons (-6) over the Broncos- Among other things that the Falcons are better at this year, is an improved pass rush despite losing Patrick Kerney. Thanks to a genius idea by the Falcons to watch how many reps that John Abraham gets, they keep a guy who has a hard time staying healthy, on the field. On critical downs, with teams knowing that he’s only in on a certain number of plays and there by maximizing his effort on each play, the defense must account for him at the line of scrimmage which then puts the advantage right back on to the Falcons side. Why? Look at Abraham’s numbers. He’s leading the NFC in sacks because he’s in so few downs which keeps his legs stronger. Look for the copycat league to see a few more admirers and imitators. Heck, if the Wildcat can catch on, why not this?

Dolphins (-10.5) over the Raiders- On the NFL Network’s pre game show, they describe the chain of events that landed Brett Favre in New York, Aaron Rodgers to be the successor in Green Bay and Chad Pennington to South Beach, a win, win, win. Tell that to the Packers who are getting less than stellar returns on the QB to be. Brett has been everything that the Jets advertised. He’s thrown enough INT’s to both the opponents and his own teammates to remind us how fun it is to go on the Favre thrill ride. But the Dolphins truly have everyone beat. From the hapless franchise they were, they’ve gotten stellar returns from the once proud franchise QB Chad Pennington. The reason I loved Chad is because he’ll never wow you with his arm and he’s never tried to. He’ll never try and squeeze that throw into triple coverage because he’s not only smarter than your average square, but also he is comfortable with his limitations. That’s a trait I love in any player.

Colts (8) over Texans- How can you possibly go against a team that erased a 17 point deficit with 6 minutes left to play already this season? How can you go against the Colts who seem to be clicking now that Peyton’s knee is healed and so has Bob Sanders? I agree that one player does not make a difference, but Bob Sanders gives them an added dimension that they just don’t get when he’s not there. Last week’s win was a gift but their defense really showed a speed that they had been lacking all last year and for the most part this year. They are a solid team. Why? Because solid teams just know how to win.

Titans (-3) over Jacksonville- The Kerry Collins that showed up last week was somewhat of a surprise. The game rested on his shoulders and he was up for the task against a Bears team that took away his options in the running game. Controlled, efficient and smart are three words that we are not used to saying about Kerry Collins but there he was playing well enough to not lose the game. If anything that’s a great sign for those in Tennesee who still don’t trust Kerry Collins. Oh I’m sorry, those are Giant fans circa 2000.

Packers (-3.5) over Bears- Ive been waiting for this run by the Packers for a while so I won’t lie, I’m a bit disappointed that they won’t be making the playoffs but this is still a good team and I’m thinking Kyle Orton still isn’t all there.

Eagles (-9) over Bengals- Revenge game for the Eagles who know how to beat down on the meaningless teams.

Chiefs (+5.5) over Saints- At this point, the Saints can’t block anyone and Tyler Thigpen, once the guy who was a joke, now seems to be coming around. We can thank Brett Favre and the Jets for that awakening.

Lions (+14.5) over Panthers- How disappointing was that performance by Delhomme. Plus, the Lions know how to score garbage time touchdowns. Anyone with Calvin Johnson can attest to that fact.

Chargers (+5.5) over Steelers- Suddenly everyone’s stock on the Steel Curtain is down. I see people getting back on the Charger bandwagon after this one.

Niners (-6) over Rams- I think Mike Singletary needs to write a book on his first game as a head coach. I think we haven’t heard every weird thing he did that day.

Cardinals (-3) over Seahawks- Really, 3 points? Yes please.

Bucs (-4) over Vikings- I’m getting bored just looking at this game.

Cowboys (-1) over Redskins- Its easier with Romo coming back but especially when Clinton Portis isn’t playing, it’s a give me.

Browns (+5) over Bills- My, 5 weeks ago, we were ready to bring back Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas and say these Bills reminded us of them, but now their stock is down and well Brady Quinn has started and no man can stop this from happening.