MLB '08 predictions!

After search and rescue teams were deployed to look for me after taking a few days off from the blog, I was found underneath a clutter of magazines and newspaper clippings about all 30 MLB teams. Coming up with a preview of this year’s MLB season has become more difficult than cramming for an SAT exam, it just should NEVER be encouraged.

I was trying to find one definitive team that had the “it” factor, the team that exuded that much disdained “championship mettle”. You know the kind of ink that can spread across the internet until it can make one team a prohibitive favorite, making people come up with very witty lines like “well that’s why you play the game.” Because, well, that IS why you play the game. Championships are never won in preseason, its won during the season. Every great team goes through a crisis during the season, and how it handles that crisis will be the turning point, or that very part of the season where one can turn to and say, “that’s when the team came together and they believed they could win the championship.”

Unfortunately for the living breathing mammal known as the prognosticator, we won’t know that until midseason or perhaps late into the season (see: Rockies, Colorado) so we have to make do with what we know right now, and unfortunately for you I’m being very truthful and telling you I had a very hard time. Every team comes with a question mark, a reason to worry, and some divisions are so packed with contenders (both East divisions, and Centrals) that its tough to pick a division winner and the league’s Wild Card winner.

Not withstanding all the forces against me, I was able to prevail over the shadow of doubt that hung over me like a rain cloud and came up with my own prediction based upon a very trusted formula. One team’s question mark didn’t worry me as much as 29 other team’s question marks. Of course all of these hypothesis are not reflecting a major trade coming before the trading deadline that could fortify a contender or the JOBA factor which is a young rookie phenom shooting through the minors and prevailing his manifest density, I mean destiny, over the game of baseball.

So let’s start with the AL and work our way through the NL.

projected order of finish

AL EAST:

1. Boston Red Sox- As much as Yankee fans want to point to my anti-Yankee bias as the reason for this ranking, its not. The fact is, the Red Sox rotation and relief situation is not as much a liability as their New York counterparts. Their young guys proved to be adept at the plate as well as the dish. They added Sean Casey who hits for average, can work a count and is about as good a guy there is in baseball which means he won’t come in and completely ruin the team aspect, which is why they call him the mayor.

As for their weakness, the rotation is relying on Clay Buchholz to be the equivalent of a number two guy in the rotation even though they have Daisuke Matsuzaka. The Sox need Clay to get his innings up, but they won’t be reigning him in like they did last year. The increased need for him to mature was brought upon by the uncomfortable situation with Curt Schilling’s absence in the rotation. The Sox have Wakefield coming back for his 100^th season. He’s an innings eater so say what you will, but the Sox are counting on those days when a team can’t figure out the knuckleballer. As for the bullpen, teams seemed to figure out Hideki Okajima where as his pre-All Star ERA was .083, his post All Star ERA was 4.56, and so the bridge to Papelbon should be an area of concern if Okajima (or as Mad Dog Russo of “Mike and the Mad Dog” likes to call him Iwojima) continues to be a liability as an all important 8^th inning bridge.

The lineup is fortified by their two young guys, Pedroia and Ellsbury who will hit leadoff. Also, Manny is in a contract year (which means he WILL turn it on because he has the most natural ability to just mash the ball), Papi will be Papi but don’t expect Mike Lowell to duplicate last year’s stats, but if he were to come close, it would be welcome addition because frankly what can you expect from JD Drew? Those questions will be answered, but expect the Red Sox to have enough depth in their pitching to sustain them and give them enough cushion over the suddenly young Yankees.

2. New York Yankees- Suddenly, the youth movement is in full scale and only in New York can a one year window seem reasonable for this bunch. Because if Johan Santana flourishes in Shea (Crossing my fingers) and Hughes or Kennedy stink it up or struggle, Boss Jr (Hank Steinbrenner) will start doing the “I told you so” dance all over the back pages of New York’s dailies. If you don’t know, the man is not shy about talking to the public about anything relating to the Yankee empire and the decision to keep the young guys and inadvertently taking them out of the Johan Santana sweepstakes was a major decision that creates a turning point in this franchise. If they are successful and they do fill out the rotation, the Yankees will continue to pump money into scouting and take those high ceiling guys that most teams lay off of, but if not, then expect them to revert back to the blank-check policies of old and sign C.C. Sabathia to a multi year deal for major bucks. The deal will work for the first two years, but given the amount of take out centers in New York and the nightlife here as compared to say Cleveland, weight will be an issue and a sticking point that could cause some heat.

If the team is to go anywhere it will be because of their

Pitching, but that also is its major concern. The Yankees know what to expect from Chien Ming Wang (who will have a great year thanks to the development of his changeup) but other than that, who knows how much the Clemens controversy did mentally to Andy Pettite, or their young guys Hughes and Kennedy. Kennedy is in the mold of a Greg Maddux, a guy who gets away with pitches because of his control, but he will need to be almost perfect on some nights because of the line ups in the major leagues he will be facing, and that’s difficult to ask of any pitcher. Mike Mussina is one the downward part of his career which should alarm any Yankee fan and should make them turn from the TV when he’s pitching.

But the major question will be Joba Chamberlain. He will be in the bullpen to start off the year which should make the bullpen situation more of a strength. However, when he graduates to starter status, the bullpen will be counting more on LaTroy Hawkins and (gulp) Kyle Farnsworth. The Yankees should make a deal for bullpen help but given their recent stance, don’t expect for them to trade for a game changing presence unless the situation is dire.

The line up has never been the problem, so I don’t see them slowing. I don’t see Jorge Posada putting up the average he did last year but his power numbers should still be about the same, and any drop off in his performance should be picked up by a platoon of Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu, all of whom came into spring healthy and looking slimmer and trimmer. Bringing back A-Rod was an adventure but a necessary long term investment because of all the things A-Rod can do for you. Did you know he averages 23 steals a year to go along with 44 homers 128 RBI’s, a .306 average, .967 slugging, and .389 OBP? The guy is on track to being the greatest of all time. But to be the best ever, he will need to be Mr. October as well as Mr. May-September.

3. Tampa Bay Rays- People say I have way too much hope in this team and I say, why not? Just because the Blue Jays have a higher pay roll and more recognizable names, what, I’m supposed to ignore statistical evidence that says that the Rays will prevent more runs than the Jays? I’m supposed to ignore that they have two frontline starters who put up good ERA’s considering they play in the AL and the AL East for that matter which means seeing the Yankees and Red Sox at least 19 times each, a year? James Shields and the hardest name to say for any Met fan without feeling what is equivalent to a sucker punch to the gut, Scott Kazmir is what has me high on the Rays. They also traded malcontent Elijah Dukes for Matt Garza which is incredible considering that Garza played in the AL Central and came out with a 3.69 ERA. He comes into a division where he should see the same caliber of lineups that he saw in the Central but playing on an offense that has more potential as the year goes on.

The Rays are underestimated because of uneven play but Delmon

Young is establishing himself as a reliable 2b option who, if he can be more selective and draw more walks instead of strike outs, he should be really good. With June call ups to Evan Longoria and possibly David Price in August, the Rays should be well established to put a scare into the Red Sox and Yankees when from September 2-17^th, they will play them 12 times. Be scared north east, be very scared.

4. Toronto Blue Jays- The Jays are an intriguing team considering all the dealing they did. J.P. Riccardi is from the Billy Beane mold that means always repairing and remodeling. He basically traded Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus which should give them a more reliable glove and a better hitter, if you believe he’s healthy. They need Vernon Wells to rebound and have a great year which when you consider his career stats is being a .280 hitter and having 20 homers which makes you rethink why he was given such a massive deal? Alex Rios is a budding superstar who should be a middle of the order guy by mid season by the time they realize that Vernon Wells won’t ever be the guy he once was. The Jays have a nice group of starters who possess ability but their bullpen, with ailing B.J. Ryan and dominant set up man Jeremy Accardo (who filled in wonderfully for them) lost for the season will be a liability. The Jays will need score runs from somewhere or find a reliever from a group that might not be able to do so. On a good note, AJ Burnett is in a walk year and if he puts up his usual walk year numbers, that could be welcome sign to the Jays fans because they sorely need someone to help our Roy Halladay in terms of the rotation.

5. Baltimore Orioles- Welcome to the rebuilding process which should have begun about 5 years ago, but was held up by foolish spending and the likes. The O’s are now staring down the barrel of a few more losing seasons before they flesh out the nucleus of a winning franchise. welcome sign for O’s fans who seemed to not hate the losing but the not having any real plan for the future part of this losing. Because after all, if you are losing you must have something to fall back on right? Their new GM Andy MacPhail did the right thing by moving Erik Bedard for two really great prospects in Adam Jones (CF/5 tool player of the future) and George Sherrill (future 30-40 save closer) and finally a bit of luck in timing moving Miguel Tejada, a Peter Angelos favorite (one day before he appeared on the Mitchell report) for more power arms to stockpile the O’s foundation. The O’s have Nick Markakis who miraculously found time to drive in 112 RBI’s on a team that really had no power threat and once they deal Brian Roberts, most probably to the Cubs, and possibly Melvin Mora during the All Star break to a wanting team, they should have enough to possibly retool for ’10 or ’11 or however long it will take Oriole fans to forget Peter Angelos and his mistakes as Andy MacPhail obtains more power, which would be a best for all.

AL CENTRAL

1. Cleveland Indians- They were a few outs away from going to the World Series, even with their major power hitter, Travis Hafner MIA from all the action. The Indians expect Pronk to go on a tear this year and you should expect the same. The Pronk of old is a player who can hit for power, average and be a terror when he steps up to the plate. But the success of the youngsters and back ups should encourage Indian fans who hope that they can make one last run given that this could be their last year with C.C. Sabathia in the rotation. Sabathia is due for a monster raise, a raise that some believe Cleveland won’t be able to give him, but with Fausto Carmona proving in the playoffs that his year was legit, they shouldn’t be in too much need for Sabathia’s arm. Their bullpen is a strength even with Joe Borowski as its closer. They have Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez who should continue to dominate. Jake Westbrook and Cliff Lee should rebound this year to give the team four good pitchers, two aces and two good pitchers.

The middle of their batting order had four guys who produced 20 or more

homers which should make their middle order that much more dangerous. Franklin Guttierez should improve his stats and that should be enough to help the Indians win this division for the second year in a row.

2. Detroit Tigers- I bet this pick is a shock. Forget the fact that the Tigers just obtained the best hitter not named Alex Rodriguez. Forget that they traded for Edgar Renteria who despite only playing 124 games last year and coming with a fragile tag has never played less than 133 games since 1997. They still have a healthy Justin Verlander who is entering stalwart ace territory and they still possess a dangerous line up with guys who hit for average and power. But with those two guys inserted in, they could have a line up that should make any pitcher worry about his ERA and make any bullpen start warming up, say around the second inning. Cabrera’s bat will help but his defense will hurt.

However the real worry comes not just with their defense but also their

bullpen and reliability of starters past Verlander. Jeremy Bonderman and Kenny Rogers were hampered by injuries which should make this year a cautionary one for both. As for the bullpen, Fernando Rodney is still hurt and Joel Zumaya’s career is being threatened by an injury he got from doing a regular chore. Its tough to question their lineup but as we have seen from Yankee teams of the past, good pitching will always beat good hitting. For any sort of success they will need monster years from Bonderman and Rogers to have any hope of not just winning a World Series but also stopping Cleveland from winning its second division crown.

3. Chicago White Sox- Remember when this was a three team race every year? Remember when the White Sox had the talent to keep up? Well, they don’t anymore because they don’t play the small ball that Ozzie Guillen, their coach, likes to play which doesn’t sit well with him. They got Nick Swisher and Orlando Cabrera, two very good offensive guys who should help but gave up Jon Garland and other prospects to get him which doesn’t seem all that great. But in a hitter’s ball park it should be considered a good move. After Mark Buerhle (who had a down year and still had a 3.63 ERA) and Javier Vazquez, their rotation is filled in with two rooks and Jose Contreras who after a great start floundered. The White Sox won’t have a problem putting up runs because Jim Thome and Paul Konerko should put up enough runs and have better years along with Jermaine Dye and should take the pressure off of Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher to come and be saviors on a team that has enough offensive capability to win. Their bullpen on paper is improved in terms of a bridge to Bobby Jenks who is VERY underrated considering his sub 1 WHIP and his consecutive 40 save seasons since being named closer. I don’t expect them to get to the World Series, but I don’t expect them to be doormats either.

4. Minnesota Twins- Its amazing how you consider that they lose Johan Santana and people forget that they have enough arms in the minors and enough offense on their team to keep playing well enough to keep people coming to the ballpark. Carl Pohlad is a very stingy man, but shyness of the pocketbook aside, the team is built very well and you can’t underestimate how good this team is assembled in terms of farm depth and a great bullpen. Their pitching rotation, once Johan clone Francisco Liriano comes up from the minors, should be good enough to sustain some sort of momentum and cause sleepless nights in both Detroit and Cleveland as they fight to the death for the Central crown. They now have a speedster at the top of the line up, a promising first round draft pick who is only 24 years old in Elijah Dukes manning the outfield. So why so down on the Twins? Their bullpen is one of the best with Nathan resigned and should have enough thump with Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Co. to get the thundersticks cracking all season long. I guess once a player like Johan leaves, its tough to get away from the obvious and look deeper and appreciate what they still have left as opposed to what they lost.

5. Kansas City Royals- Everyone, including the Royals fans and organization, is drinking the Trey Hillman juice. The man came from Japan like a bat out of hell and emerged as a hot coaching candidate, even at one point being linked to the Yankee job, but he now will start in the depths and dregs of America’s heartland. The Royals have had two winning seasons since 1992, and well anything can get this organization and its fans pumped. But of note are the young guys coming up in the organization. Gil Meche proved to be a reliable ace though he was considered overpriced but in this case its relative. Its relative in that for the Royals to attract any major free agents they have to over pay and Dayton Moore realizes that. The franchise has some studs in their batting order but it is the pitching that needs attention. While Meche and Bannister are good fits, it will be the development of Zack Greinke that will be key to their success. Should he not continue to improve or regress slightly, the Royals could be in the works for a down year. Beware and be patient Royal fans, you will work your way up, just not this year.

AL WEST

1. LA Angels- Though they now have a hundred outfielders and about 20 of them former centerfielders, the Angels seem to believe that their problems will be fixed. Expect them to start off slow with John Lackey on the DL to start the season and Kelvim Escobar done for the year, but expect Jon Garland to shine with the kind of dependability that this Angel lineup can provide along with Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana more comfortable in that 5^th starter position. The offense should be better with Hunter protecting Vlad. I’ve always been critical of the Angels front office, because of their hesitation in making a move to bolster their line up. They were giving up a lot but those are the chances you must take if you truly want to make a difference. There is no reason why Miguel Cabrera is in Detroit instead of LA where the focus was on most of the offseason as his likely landing spot. Its all about pulling the trigger, and they didn’t. Now imagine this line up with him AND Torii Hunter. Not only would it be one of the most dangerous line ups they would be able to run away with the division from the offset and be built to win for years to come as well. I don’t expect them to win much in the postseason anyway, so winning this division is like coming in second in a beauty contest, sure, you get recognition, and you get an award, but in the end your really not the best.

2. Seattle Mariners- I believe this team can be good, I truly do with their pitching staff and their bullpen. But their hitters past Ichiro and Raul Ibanez don’t really scare me or any pitching staff in the AL or NL. They are a team that will be interesting to watch. They gave up their two best prospects to land a top of the rotation star that will do two things. It will give them a potent one two punch, probably the best in the league, but also it will take the pressure off of King Felix who since 20 has had the weight of this organization on his shoulders. Ichiro is in a walk year basically so he will put up monster numbers and their manager McClaren has called for more aggressive baseball which could be the only way this team scores any kind of runs. Their bullpen could use some extra power arms and their offense is basically anemic when you consider their best power hitter hit .205 last year. Richie Sexson will have to work on that total for them to have any shot. Ichiro is reliable enough to set the table, but without anyone to clean up, all you have is one big mess on your hands.

3. Oakland Athletics- Every year it seems that Billy Beane turns an awesome prospect into another guy who will come up in a few years and be turned over into better prospects. He has seen Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito, and now Dan Haren leave, but he’s always been able to get something of value in return. That’s the quality of a GM who knows what he’s doing even with limited resources. People always say “imagine what Billy could do with the Yankees or Red Sox payroll”, well years ago he had the chance but he turned it down considering it for a minute before realizing his heart was still here in Oakland. The A’s will be in for a down year but should have enough quality bats and enough quality players to win a respectable amount of wins. They still have Rich Harden, unfortunately the question always becomes for how long? Not just for the fact that everyone’s a tradeable commodity, but also because the guy is an injury waiting to happen. If he stays healthy, he could be ace they envisioned when they got him and they hope that he can so that they can build on something for a future set of stars that will hopefully align the A’s and the AL West crown.

4. Texas Rangers- I like their hitting, and they did a fine job in getting Josh Hamilton but once again sacrificed good young pitching (sort of like trying to find water in a barren wasteland) to do so. The fact is, you don’t need more batters, you need better pitchers in their ballpark. Guys who are power arms to keep the ball out of play and in the ball park at all times. The Rangers still don’t get that and so they will score many runs but will lose many games 10-7 because their pitching is not good enough to help the damage this offense will do, and it will pound some teams in some games, but in most they will be like a chicken with its head cut off; trying to find an identity while losing most of the time.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

NL EAST

1. New York Mets- I know, I know, a shocker here, but let’s consider for a moment that the Mets, despite going on a historic collapse, good things happened because of it. David Wright took control of the club and became a de facto leader because it was quite apparent that none of the players had taken an active leadership role. Changes to this club were necessary after not making much of a change the offseason before, and the glaring weakness in starting pitching was brought to the forefront. But the best thing that came out of it was the urgency to make a franchise changing move and that came in the form of bringing Johan Santana for what pretty much was the entire farm system. Johan brings a top of the order starter that is capable of taking games into his hands and being able to dominate for weeks on end. He’s the kind of star the Mets haven’t had since David Cone was throwing off the hill at Shea. Now they can push every other starter down and with John Maine looking very good this year, it seems that the Mets could have three really good starters with Pedro added in, one up and down starter in Oliver Perez and just one big question mark with a rotating list filling out the five hole.

The offense should still be good enough to win most games because of their mix of speed, and power that is a rarity in most line ups. Their #1, 3 and 4 hitters all stole more than 25 bases which is extraordinary coming from the power part of their line up. They have guys who can also get on base with Moises Alou’s return and guys who can mash the ball (Ryan Church had more than 40 extra base hits). The bullpen will be bolstered by the return of Duaner Sanchez. Adding him would be like adding two relievers because now you can get Aaron Heilman to pitch in the 7^th inning and can get Pedro to pitch his requisite 6 innings and won’t need to tax your starting pitching.

2. Atlanta Braves- I like this team a lot. They have pitching, and a good middle of the line up with the all important role of budding star with the contract year this year in Mark Texiera which should make them really good. If Chipper can have a healthy season, and they can get atleast 150-180 innings out of Mike Hampton this year, it would be considered not just an improvement, but a huge boost for a team that for the last few years seemed to be lost in the NL East after years of dominating it. The Braves have the relief pitching (if they can somehow fix Mike Gonzalez’ pitching motion to reduce stress on his elbow and keep him off the DL), and enough starting pitching with Hudson, Smoltz leading the way to dethrone even the Mets in the NL East but I just don’t see it happening. They will need Mike Hampton to be healthy all year, which I don’t see and they need Jarr Jurrens to learn very quickly on the job. Jarr has been impressive thus far during the spring but what a folly it would be to trust spring stats and make predictions on that. Let’s see the kid do it during July and August.
3. Philadelphia Phillies- I’m not counting them out because of some strife I have with them. No, I’m counting them out because they do not have enough pitching to keep them afloat. As good as last season’s story was, EVERYTHING fell their way during that last month and to ask the Mets to free fall this year is asking a lot out of the baseball gods that gave Philly one reason to cheer. They still have 3 of the best hitters in the NL in Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley (Best offensive 2b in baseball) and Ryan Howard, but they lack the pitching in both the rotation past Brett Myers and Cole Hamels that they would need to sustain them for a stretch run for a playoff spot with the Braves AND the Mets sitting in that division.
4. Washington Nationals- Beyond the hopelessness and feel of a minor league squad, the Nationals have some of the best offshoot talent that Jim Bowden could muscle out of other teams. He took two problem kids and put them on the same team. The Nationals hope that their influx of young talent can mix with the core of the team to form a very dangerous group that should never be underestimated. The Nationals are a dangerous team, just ask the Mets, when given the opportunity to prove it. They have enough hitting but lack the pitching to even be in the conversation in their own division. If they get enough of their young arms to develop in time for next season, they have enough offense to build upon for years to come, that is if Jim Bowden doesn’t trade for every young malcontent he wanted to draft from 2003 on.
5. Florida Marlins- It’s a simple formula that only they have mastered. Develop star players, win championship, disassemble by trading away all parts and go back to step one. The Marlins are even better at it than Billy Beane who is perhaps the mastermind. Larry Beinfest and Co have managed to win two World Series in a span of almost two decades where the Cubs haven’t done so in a century. So expect this team to come around slow, but keep track of those “add ons” in the Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis trade and also the stars they got, they could be the frontline guys when the Marlins strike for another championship.

NL CENTRAL

1. Chicago Cubs- With a century passing since its last world series title, Cub fans are getting antsy with anticipation for a year where all the pieces are set. The Cubs have named Kerry Wood their closer (a move which will pay off in my opinion) and have two very good set up men as bridges in Bob Howry and Carlos Marmol who has a ridiculous k/9 ratio. The Cubs have a very good offense, pending a Brian Roberts deal, and could have a very good top 3 rotation, all pieces that seem to say that the Cubs can do it all. But come on, this is the Cubs we’re talking about. The lovable losers don’t lose in heartbreaking fashion like the Red Sox do, but there is a distinct likeability to this franchise and this team that even the ’04 Red Sox didn’t have. More power in the middle of the line up and a Japanese import that could electrify a franchise. The Cubs hope that their 100 year anniversary can signal a change in direction and finally spell an end to the infamous south side drought.

2. Milwaukee Brewers- A young line up that can clearly mash with the best of them and a very deep rotation make this team a very good candidate to shock some people. I would be wary of closer Eric Gagne who’s numbers have not just steadily dropped, its dropped off the face of the planet after a good first half in Texas. The Brewers are counting on him since they do NOT want to turn the job over back to erratic Derrick Turnbow. The Brewers have the offense, but without a solid bullpen, those close games will go mostly to the opposition, something they must improve and prevent.

3. Cincinatti Reds- They have a promising line up and an even more promising rotation if things pan out the way they are supposed to. They shored up their closer weakness by adding Francisco Cordero. However, putting Brandon Phillips as your clean up man tells you all you need to know, and they are counting on Joey Votto and Jay Bruce to make huge contributions. The Reds play in an offensive park which will always put the pitching on its heels, but the Reds should be effecting in stopping runs with Aaron Harang and everyone’s darling young guys Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez. Johnny Cueto is drawing comparisons to Pedro Martinez with his electric stuff. Again, too many questions that I hope for the Reds sake, will be answered resoundingly positive. There are more certainties in Milwaukee than this team, so that is why I put the Reds coming in third.

4. Houston Astros- The Astros don’t have a completely useless unit although trading for Miguel Tejada the day before he landed on the Mitchell Report probably led to the biggest day full of “d’ohs” around Houston in history. Tejada is a serviceable bat who should enjoy NL pitching but don’t expect huge numbers. He does enter an intriguing line up with Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman (down year offensively for him) and Hunter Pence. The Astros don’t have pitching past Roy Oswalt, whose strike out numbers per 9 has slipped for the last three years.from 206 to 154 last year. The team got a boost from Jose Valverde coming on board but the move should be looked at with caution, because why would any team discard of a 47 save closer if they didn’t think they had some reason to worry? Perhaps getting Brandon Lyon more opportunties was more important than giving Valverde another season to pump his fist WITH AUTHORITY (Marv Albert voice)! But its safe to say that this team will be good offensively but offensive pitching wise.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates- I like this club. I think their starting pitching may finally come around with Gorzelanny and Ian Snell heading that rotation and the fact that their middle relief and closer are talented but young and inexperienced. I don’t doubt for a second that the Pirates are a mess organization wise, otherwise how else can you explain being this bad for this long? Their closer is 25 and seems to be headed to a promising career as a closer. Its time the team traded Jason Bay who’s 30 and could be a very good hitter for a team like the Diamondbacks that are offensively challenged. Getting the most out of your salvageable goods is the most important part here. Good scouting and a solid building of the foundation is the only way this franchise is going to turn things around. Otherwise, its another year in the cellar for the Pittsburgh faithful.

NL WEST

1. Arizona Diamondbacks- People want me to say the Rockies, but I don’t believe in streaks that defy logic and go against conventional wisdom. Streaks like the Rockies and the Mets collapse happen once every 20 times, not every time. This is not the norm and as good as the Rockies are offensively, playing in Colorado limits them because they don’t have that pitcher that can come and strike guys out. We are not talking about their relievers either. The Diamondbacks however have two ace quality pitchers and a former five time CY Young Winner as their 5^th starter. Micah Owings is a guy who could be pushing for an everyday position with the way he hits out of the pitcher’s hole. The Diamondbacks have a one two punch that can counter any in all of the NL and will be tough to face in Haren and Webb. Beware the offense however. All these young guys still have not found a way to strike through with the lumber as their offense has been a point of frustration for a fanbase that can almost taste a return trip to the big show in November (did you know that?). No matter what, the backs pitching will have them in most games, but its on the offense to hold their pitching down in most games, I think with both Haren and Webb pitching every two out of five days, the team can hope against hope that the offense somehow picks up.

2. LA Dodgers- They looked good in spring training and they have enough young hitting and young pitching to make most teams envy. Of course, they are another team that have both the players and the payroll to finance a deal for Miguel Cabrera but hesitated to pull the trigger. However, the talent in the Dodger pool is probably deeper with James Loney, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp and their pitching could be spearheaded by a few aces in the next few years. Chad Billingsley already has a very good 8.6 k/9 ratio that bodes well and will work under a short pitch count, but that will go more for his benefit. The team’s closer situation is set and their middle relief is still only ok. Most of their starters are able to go the distance because they work relatively quick and pitch to contact. While their success rests on the shoulders of these young guns, I believe that they have enough veterans to lead them and the right manager to lead them all. No one can sort out a room full of odd personalities better than Joe Torre. He was their best acquisition (next to the most underrated signing of Andruw Jones for a basement cheap price) because of all the intangibles and the respect he brings. He won’t shout or beat on his chest to make his point but he will get his point across. Everyone will learn from him and they will make a really good run around the middle of summer that will have everyone talking and thinking playoffs, only to die out by mid to late August.

3. Colorado Rockies- As wonderful and magical as the ride was, the Rockies are ill equipped to repeat the performance. Again, I love what the Rockies did, but to expect those same set of circumstances to happen is improbable. One good thing that came out of last year is that they found a leader in Troy Tulowitzki and a shortstop that can lead them for years to come. They signed Matt Holliday and postponed his jaunt into free agency and they discovered a flame throwing closer and turned their closer into a somewhat reliable 8^th inning bridge, a set of events that probably is unprecedented. Don’t count them out, but they have contact inducing pitchers that gives them that unpredictable aura about them and makes rationale prevail over the wanting to see a phenomenal story continue.

4. San Diego Padres- They have always had the pitching and, their relief, well no one can shop for bargain priced relievers and come out with gold out of the scrap heap than Kevin Towers. But their line up has no consistent threat that can scare opposing pitchers and they play in a pitchers park that serves to help the team. The Pads do have Jake Peavy, Chris Young and Greg Maddux as pitchers so that should keep them in about 60% of the games they pitch as opposed to the other 40 when Randy Wolf and Justin Germano pitch, but searching for the offense will be the toughest thing. Here’s wishing for a four man rotation of Peavy, Young, Maddux and Wolf to see what will happen!

5. San Francisco Giants- Where to start with them? They gave Barry Zito a $126 million contract which has to be one of the dumbest contracts ever. Not just for the fact that the guy is a pitcher and he will pitch in about 30-35 (if healthy) games out of a 162 game season, but also for the fact that his stats were going down as he was making his exit out of Oakland. No longer the Cy Young winner he was across the bridge, he went to the other side of the Golden Gate and is now the picture of why the Giants are run horribly by Brian Sabean, a man who did a few deals but has also made some horrendous mistakes (remember that Boof Bonser Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan trade for AJ Pierzinsky?). But he does have Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain (the unluckiest guy on the planet). He does not have anything else. They signed Aaron Rowand to inaugurate the post-Barry era.

Its weird that the Giants ownership has been so adamant about sounding as far away from the Bonds era when they were all for it as Bonds was drawing record crowds into Pac Bell and before it, Candlestick. I won’t pretend to like Bonds, but even that had me thinking that these guys were scum bags.

AL Playoffs NL Playoffs

Boston def. Angels (3-0) Mets def. Diamondbacks (3-1)

Indians def. Yankees (WC) (3-1) Cubs def. Braves (WC) (3-0)

ALCS NLCS

Indians def Boston (4-2) Mets def. Cubs (4-2)

World Series

Indians def. Mets (4-2)

NOW, for real guys, PLAY BALL!